• August 5, 2024

A Note on Today’s Market Volatility

A Note on Today’s Market Volatility

A Note on Today’s Market Volatility 258 196 PYGG
Dear Investors,

 

We understand that the recent unwinding of the Japanese carry trade and escalating global recession fears have caused market volatility. These events can be unsettling, but it’s important to maintain a long-term perspective. History has repeatedly shown that periods of market turbulence often present exceptional investment opportunities.

 

The Japanese carry trade is a trading strategy where investors borrow money in a low-interest currency, such as the Japanese Yen, and invest it in assets denominated in a higher-yielding currency. This strategy has been popular for years due to Japan’s historically low interest rates. However, when the Bank of Japan starts to raise interest rates, the attractiveness of this trade diminishes, leading to investors unwinding their positions. This unwinding can create market volatility as large sums of money are shifted between currencies.

 

While the short-term outlook for equities and other risk assets may appear clouded because of this, we believe that the underlying fundamentals remain sound. The current environment could, in fact, be a catalyst for necessary economic adjustments and potential policy responses that could ultimately benefit the markets.

 

Fixed income typically serves as a valuable portfolio hedge during times of market stress. As investor sentiment turns cautious, demand for bonds typically increases, driving bond prices up and yields down. This inverse relationship between bond prices and yields provides a crucial cushion against equity losses. In essence, while your equity holdings may be experiencing a downturn, your fixed income portion is generating gains, helping to offset overall portfolio losses.

 

Next to equities and real estate we acknowledge that both gold and bitcoin are experiencing short-term weakness due to the current liquidity crisis, where investors are selling these risk assets to raise cash and reduce leverage. However, these “hard assets” have historically served as long-term hedges against currency devaluation, a risk that may increase as policymakers respond to the current economic and market challenges. Consequently, the current weakness in these hard assets could present a compelling buying opportunity for investors with a long-term horizon.

 

It’s essential to remember that market crashes are an inherent part of the investment cycle. The 1987 crash, the dot-com bubble burst, and the 2008 financial crisis were all followed by significant market rebounds and -eventually- new all-time highs. The same holds for smaller crises that have plagued the market since then. As Warren Buffet famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

 

We believe that this period of market uncertainty presents a compelling opportunity for long-term investors to reassess their portfolios and potentially increase their exposure to risk assets. While short-term fluctuations are inevitable, we remain confident in the resilience of the global economy and the long-term prospects for equity and other hard assets investments. At the same time, we are not in a hurry to diminish fixed income exposure, now that lower interest rates are to be expected going forward (and therefore higher bond prices). However, we do see the upside potential in the bond market as limited, due to inflation concerns that are still present.

 

Our team continues to closely monitor market developments and is available to discuss investment strategies in line with your specific goals. Feel free to contact your account manager if you wish to discuss the situation further.